Predictability Map: Improve•Choose•Explore

This workshop canvas helps teams build fit-for-purpose OKRs based on the nature of their work, rather than treating all objectives as equally uncertain “bets.”

Participants classify their work into three problem zones:

• Improve – Optimising known systems with predictable outcomes

• Choose – Comparing viable options and making strategic decisions

• Explore – Discovering unknown problems, solutions, or value

Each zone guides participants through a simple, repeatable structure:

Problem → Assumptions → Signals → OKR

This ensures that:

• Improvement work leads to performance-driven OKRs

• Choice work leads to decision-driven OKRs

• Exploration work leads to learning-driven OKRs

The result is a set of OKRs that better align with reality, improve strategic clarity, and help teams understand when they are optimising, deciding, or learning.

The template also includes:

• Fully worked examples in each zone

• Clear facilitation guidance

• A link to the original Medium article for a deeper understanding of the framework

Suggested Use Cases

• Strategic planning and OKR definition

• Portfolio or product roadmap alignment

• Agile / product / transformation workshops

• Teams needing to distinguish between delivery, decision, and discovery work