What it is for:A scenario matrix is a 2x2 grid built from two important uncertainties about the future. You leave with four named scenarios, a list of signals to watch, and a short set of decisions sorted into robust moves and conscious bets.
Who it helps:Leaders and planners making long-lived decisions, such as a building, platform or ten-year service model, under real uncertainty.
When to use it
When you are making a long-lived decision, such as a building, a platform or a ten-year service model.
When leaders disagree about the future and the argument keeps going in circles.
After a PESTLE analysis has surfaced several high-impact, high-uncertainty changes.
How to use it
State the focal question with a time frame.
List outside forces and choose two important, independent uncertainties as axes.
Name and describe the four resulting worlds.
Add early signals for each world and write its implications for current plans.
Circle the decisions that help in every world, and treat the rest as bets with signals.
Tip:Choose axes that would surprise at least one person in the room. Comfortable axes produce comfortable scenarios.
Credits and sources:Original Tiremesù worksheet and wording. Further reading: UK Government Office for Science https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/futures-toolkit-for-policy-makers-and-analysts/the-futures-toolkit-html
Full guide and film:https://www.tiremesu.com/guides/scenario-matrix
