Barrier Transition Matrix


The Barrier Transition Matrix is a long-term envisioning tool to explore the product, technology, service, or other concept development based on going through transition stages. Stages are linked to the corresponding barriers, and each next stage is the order of magnitude more complex than the previous one from the current perspective.

The are two versions of the matrix:

  1. Light version focuses only on the roadmap (cells in the matrix) and stages. It is easier to fulfill and it might be a good starting point (e.g., through a collective workshop experience) before going with the full version, that requires more analytical skills. Choose this one if what is more important than why and how.

  2. Full version directly adds the notion of transition barriers and drivers, as well as the notion of current mainstream (baseline). It requires 3-5 more time than the light version to fulfill. Choose this one if why and how is more important than what.


Originally the Barrier Transition Matrix was inspired by the interview with Alex Kipman (back then the head of Kinect & Hololens projects at Microsoft, 2017) in which he described his way of thinking on the evolution the Mixed Reality.


Detailed guide on the framework:


Constantin Kichinsky image
Constantin Kichinsky
Founder & Lead Reseacher@Spectral Thinking Team
We explore the future of humanity, develop the Spectral Thinking methodology, and create tools for explorers like us.
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