The Hypothesis Prioritization Canvas
The Hypothesis Prioritisation Canvas is a strategic decision-making tool designed to help teams evaluate and prioritize their hypotheses based on risk and potential value. This canvas ensures resources are focused on the most impactful and uncertain assumptions, driving efficient testing and product discovery.
It was developed by Jeff Gothelf, co-author of Lean UX, Sense and Respond, and Who Does What By How Much? A Practical Guide to Customer-Centric OKRs.
What Does It Help Achieve?
Focus Efforts: Direct attention to the hypotheses with the highest risk and value to optimize testing strategies.
Reduce Waste: Avoid spending time on low-value or unnecessary experiments.
Align Teams: Foster collaborative discussions about risks and opportunities, ensuring cross-functional alignment.
Who Is It For?
Product Teams: Designers, product managers, developers, and marketers engaged in product discovery or innovation.
Startups and Enterprises: Teams validating new business ideas, products, or features.
Facilitators and Coaches: Professionals guiding organizations in prioritization and agile methodologies.
When Should You Use It?
During Product Discovery: To determine which assumptions to validate first.
After Brainstorming Hypotheses: To assess which ideas carry the greatest potential for impact and risk.
In Strategy Workshops: To align teams on where to focus testing efforts.
How to Use the Hypothesis Prioritisation Canvas
Test (Box 1): Focus on hypotheses that carry high value but also high risk. These have the potential to significantly impact your business but could cause harm if incorrect. Prioritize these for discovery, experimentation, and learning to reduce uncertainty and validate assumptions effectively.
Ship & Measure (Box 2): High-value, low-risk hypotheses don’t require extensive discovery. Build these ideas confidently based on prior knowledge and expertise, but monitor their performance closely to ensure they deliver the expected results.
Don’t Test, Usually Don’t Build (Box 3): Low-value, low-risk hypotheses typically don’t warrant testing or building. However, some essential ideas (e.g., table stakes like payment systems) may fall here. These should be built to operate effectively without extensive discovery or expectation of differentiation.
Discard (Box 4): Hypotheses with low value and high risk should be eliminated. These ideas aren’t worth testing or building as they are unlikely to contribute to your business goals and carry unnecessary risk.
By systematically applying the Hypothesis Prioritisation Canvas, teams can make informed decisions about where to concentrate their testing efforts, optimising the use of resources and increasing the likelihood of successful outcomes.
For a detailed exploration of this tool, refer to Jeff Gothelf's article: The Hypothesis Prioritization Canvas.
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